Thinking in Bets
Why I recommend it
Duke separates the quality of a decision from the result it produces. That helps when luck plays a part and certainty isn’t available.
What it changed in my thinking
A good result doesn’t prove a choice was wise. To learn, we need to return to what we could have known at the time.
Who it’s useful for
Leaders, product teams, and people making repeated decisions.
A tension or limitation
Putting a number on uncertainty can make a guess look precise. Keep track of how much you really know.